Bitcoin Power Law today
Coin Metrics data, daily series since 2010.
Full historical series
Logarithmic scale on both axes. The seven colored bands are standard
deviations of the regression's residual (the "Rainbow Chart"); the
light line is the actual price. Source: Coin Metrics,
PriceUSD.
What it actually measures
The Power Law fits a straight line to the logarithm of price against the logarithm of days elapsed since Bitcoin's genesis block, January 3, 2009. On that double logarithmic scale, an exponential growth that keeps decelerating — like Bitcoin's over its fifteen years of history — looks a lot like a straight line.
The seven colored bands aren't hand-picked thresholds: they're standard deviations of that same regression's residual, in steps of 0.5σ from −1.5σ ("very undervalued") to +1.5σ ("extreme euphoria"). The actual price moves between those bands without needing any data beyond the price history itself.
Unlike MVRV or the Z-Score, which compare price against the network's on-chain cost basis, the Power Law uses no on-chain data at all: it compares today's price against its own very-long-term trend. It's, literally, the simplest possible definition of "expensive" or "cheap": expensive or cheap relative to itself over time.
The top gets closer to the trend every cycle
We calculated the regression's exact deviation — in standard deviations σ — on the day of each cycle top already used across the other pages of this dashboard. The sequence is an almost perfect descending staircase:
| Cycle top | Deviation | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| June 2011 | +3.94σ | Extreme euphoria |
| December 2013 | +3.47σ | Extreme euphoria |
| December 2017 | +2.71σ | Extreme euphoria |
| November 2021 | +1.54σ | Overvalued |
| October 2025 | +0.27σ | Fair value |
The October 2025 top — the most recent — barely pulled away from the trend's center line: +0.27σ is a minor deviation, not a bubble. Looking at this indicator alone, that top wouldn't have looked exceptional at all. It's the same cycle compression already visible in MVRV, the Z-Score and the Puell Multiple, but taken here to the extreme: the indicator that compares price against its own trend says the latest top was barely a top at all.
The floor didn't move
If the compression were even, each cycle's floor should also move closer to the trend over time. That's not what shows up:
| Cycle floor | Deviation | Zone |
|---|---|---|
| November 2011 | −1.15σ | Undervalued |
| January 2015 | −0.87σ | Undervalued |
| December 2018 | −0.77σ | Undervalued |
| March 2020 | −1.09σ | Undervalued |
| November 2022 | −1.18σ | Undervalued |
The five floors fell within a narrow band, between −0.77σ and −1.18σ, with no tendency to move closer to or farther from the center line. None even reached "very undervalued" (below −1.25σ). The result is a clear asymmetry: the top kept compressing toward the trend cycle after cycle, while the floor stayed anchored in practically the same place all five times.
It's not just this indicator. Five independent metrics — MVRV, NUPL, Z-Score, Puell Multiple and Power Law — show the same cycle-by-cycle compression, and in 2025 none reached its classic threshold. See all five in one table →
That's why this site describes the current level instead of
announcing what comes next. The full methodology, with the code
that checks it, is published in the auditoria/ folder
of the repository.
Frequently asked questions
Does the Power Law predict where price is headed?
No. It's a very-long-term reference framework, built solely from past price history. It incorporates no future-demand variable and doesn't guarantee that the trend of the last fifteen years will hold for the next fifteen.
What does it mean for the price to be "undervalued"?
That today it trades below its own very-long-term trend line, not that it's about to rise. The five cycle floors checked were in that zone, but there were also "undervalued" stretches that kept falling before recovering.
How often is it updated?
The regression is recalculated with the entire available series every time the page loads, so a single new day moves the result very little.
Does it work for other assets?
It's applicable to any asset with a sufficiently long price series; the main dashboard also calculates it for Ethereum, XRP and the rest of the available assets, each with its own launch date.
Follow Bitcoin without watching the screen
The dashboard lets you set up an email or Telegram alert for when MVRV crosses a threshold you choose, with frequency control so it doesn't repeat the same alert on every run. Power Law isn't yet among the metrics available for alerts.
Related metrics
The Power Law compares price against its own trend. The ones that read best alongside it:
- MVRV Z-Score — the same idea of "standard deviations from a reference," but against the on-chain cost basis instead of against time. See the dedicated page →
- MVRV — the network's cost basis, unnormalized. See the dedicated page →
- Puell Multiple — the same cycle compression, seen through miner revenue. See the dedicated page →
- Stock-to-Flow — another very-long-term model, but based on issuance scarcity instead of the price series. See the dedicated page →