Research, analysis and audit of Bitcoin since its creation
This page's headers, tooltips and footer are in English. The live data panels below are generated by the same script that powers the Spanish dashboard and, for now, still render their labels in Spanish — the numbers themselves are universal. Full panel translation is a separate, larger project.
We alert you when MVRV, NUPL, price or Fear & Greed cross your threshold. By Telegram or email, free and with no signup.
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Five independent metrics — MVRV, NUPL, Z-Score, Puell Multiple and Power Law — marked the tops of 2011, 2013 and 2017. Since 2013 each one's peak has been lower than the previous cycle's, and at the October 2025 top none reached its classic sell threshold.
Calculating cycle tension score…
Calculating conclusions from the historical series…
MVRV in detail: percentile, series since 2011 and how to read it →
Real Market Value to Realized Value — the most cited on-chain indicator to spot structural over/undervaluation, usually locked behind a paywall.
Alert me when MVRV crosses my threshold →NUPL in detail: the 5 zones, percentile and since when it stopped marking tops →
Mathematically derived from MVRV (NUPL = 1 − 1/MVRV). Classifies the aggregate sentiment of all holders into 5 zones.
Z-Score in detail: its real all-time high, and why it wasn't in 2011 →
A volatility-normalized variant of MVRV, instead of comparing the raw ratio. Calculated entirely from the same Coin Metrics data, no extra source.
Realized price in detail: percentile, episodes below it and when it fell itself →
Calculating realized price…
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Alert me when funding spikes →Loading prediction market probabilities…
Alert me when price hits my target →Loading 15-minute markets…
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Hash rate over the last 2 years. Measures network security and miner commitment, independent of price.
The 4 cycles aligned by days since the halving, price normalized to 1× on the event day. Logarithmic scale.
Puell Multiple in detail: why the top threshold hasn't fired since 2017 →
Calculating…
Stock-to-Flow in detail: doubles at every halving, the price no longer does →
Relation between circulating supply and annualized issuance. Scarcity grows by protocol design; not a price prediction model.
Power Law in detail: the top gets closer to the trend, the bottom doesn't →
Calculating regression…
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Alert me on extreme fear or greed →Loading market dominance…
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The system checks these conditions every 20 minutes. When one fires, it posts on its own to @btcauditor_alertas — and then pauses until the metric crosses back the other way.
We automatically publish the crossings that matter: MVRV at a top or bottom zone, extreme fear and greed, and moves over 5% in 24h. Nothing more: if the market isn't doing anything, the channel stays quiet.
Or set up your own alert, with your own threshold, for when a metric crosses the value you define. Email confirmation required before it activates; you can cancel anytime from the link in the email.
Once it fires, the alert pauses until the metric crosses the threshold back the other way — so a metric oscillating around your number doesn't fill your inbox.
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