Bitcoin Puell Multiple today
Coin Metrics data, daily series.
Full historical series
Logarithmic scale. The lines at 0.5 and 4 mark the historical floor
and ceiling thresholds. Source: Coin Metrics
(PriceUSD) combined with the protocol's emission
schedule.
What it actually measures
The Puell Multiple looks at miners instead of holders. It calculates how much they generate today in dollars — blocks mined per day times the current reward times the price — and compares it against the average of that same revenue over the last 365 days. A value of 2 means miners are earning twice today what they earned, on average, over the past year.
This page doesn't use the actual number of blocks mined — which fluctuates day to day depending on how much luck the network had — but the protocol's theoretical target: 144 blocks per day, one every ten minutes. It's the same approximation the main dashboard uses, documented in the code: over any window longer than a couple of weeks the difference from the real number is minimal.
For the same reason it needs a 365-day average, the indicator doesn't exist yet for Bitcoin's first year of life: there's no 2011 price cycle on this page, because by June of that year there still wasn't a full year of prior revenue to compare against.
The ceiling stopped triggering in 2017
The classic threshold — Puell Multiple above 4 — is presented as a sign of miner overheating. Counting episodes rather than days, it triggered exactly 3 times since there's enough history to calculate it, all three before 2018:
| Period | Peak Puell | Price that day |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27 – Apr 30, 2013 | 9.46 | US$ 231 (Apr 9) |
| Nov 12, 2013 – Jan 11, 2014 | 9.42 | US$ 1,129 (Nov 29) |
| Dec 4, 2017 – Jan 6, 2018 | 5.79 | US$ 19,641 (Dec 16) |
Each subsequent cycle's own maximum forms the same downward staircase already seen in MVRV and the Z-Score: 9.46 (2013) → 5.79 (2017) → 3.38 (2021, February 21) → 1.40 (2025, May 22). Neither of the last two cycles even came close to 4: 2021 fell short by nearly a full point, and 2025 didn't even clear the midpoint of the "mid zone" range.
It's the same mechanism as other indicators on this site: the basis of comparison — here, miners' revenue over the past year — grows with every cycle, so the same percentage jump in revenue produces a progressively smaller Puell Multiple.
The floor did precede rallies, all 4 times
The floor threshold — Puell Multiple below 0.5, deeply depressed miner revenue — had a better track record. It occurred in 4 independent episodes since 2011, and in all 4 the price rose both 90 and 180 days after the indicator crossed back above 0.5:
| End of episode | Price that day | +90 days | +180 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2015 | US$ 223 | +6.3% | +21.9% |
| Jan 13, 2019 | US$ 3,509 | +44.6% | +236.7% |
| May 11, 2020 | US$ 8,592 | +36.0% | +73.0% |
| Nov 21, 2022 | US$ 15,778 | +54.4% | +71.8% |
It's a perfect track record, but of just 4 cases — not enough to claim it will repeat next time. What it does describe with confidence is that, in the past, miner revenue well below its own annual average coincided with prices that hadn't yet found a definitive floor, and that the recovery that followed — when it came — was large.
It's not just this indicator. Five independent metrics — MVRV, NUPL, Z-Score, Puell Multiple and Power Law — show the same cycle-by-cycle compression, and in 2025 none reached its classic threshold. See all five in one table →
That's why this site describes the level instead of announcing what
comes next. The full procedure, with the code that verifies it, is
published in the auditoria/ folder of the repository.
Frequently asked questions
Is a low Puell Multiple a good time to buy?
It describes miners earning much less than their annual average, and in the 4 verified episodes since 2011 that preceded a price recovery. Four cases aren't a statistical guarantee, and it says nothing about how long the recovery might take or how much further the price could fall in the meantime.
How often is it updated?
It's recalculated using Coin Metrics' daily price. This page fetches the latest available value every time it loads.
Can the data be verified?
Yes. The price comes from Coin Metrics, public and free, and the block reward for each date is public protocol data. Anyone can reproduce the calculation without relying on any paid source.
Does it work for other assets?
No. It depends on Bitcoin's halving-based emission policy and proof-of-work mining. It doesn't apply to Ethereum or the rest of the dashboard's assets.
Follow the Puell Multiple without watching the screen
The dashboard lets you set up an email or Telegram alert for when MVRV crosses a threshold you choose, with frequency control so it doesn't repeat the same alert on every run. The Puell Multiple isn't among the metrics available for alerts yet.
Related metrics
The Puell Multiple looks at miners instead of holders. The ones that read best alongside it:
- MVRV — the same idea of a "historical extreme," applied to whoever holds bitcoin instead of whoever mines it. See the dedicated page →
- MVRV Z-Score — MVRV normalized by volatility; it shares the same cycle-by-cycle downward staircase. See the dedicated page →
- NUPL — the network's unrealized profit, another way of looking at the same kind of extreme. See the dedicated page →
- Stock-to-Flow — deterministic scarcity from the emission schedule, the same data this page uses to estimate the block reward. See the dedicated page →