Bitcoin MVRV today
Coin Metrics data, daily series since 2011.
Full historical series
Logarithmic scale. The line at 1 marks the point where the market price
equals the network's cost basis. Source: Coin Metrics
(CapMVRVCur).
What it actually measures
MVRV compares two ways of valuing the same network. On top, the market capitalization: every existing coin multiplied by today's price. On the bottom, the realized capitalization: each coin valued at the price it had the last time it moved on-chain.
That second figure is the interesting one, because it's what the market actually paid. It's not a line drawn on a chart or a moving average: it's money that changed hands, recorded on the chain.
The ratio between the two is MVRV. A value of 2 means the market values the network at twice what it collectively paid. A value below 1 means it's worth less: on average, whoever holds bitcoin is at a loss.
That's also where the realized price shown on the dashboard comes from (Spanish page): it's the market price divided by MVRV, i.e. the average cost basis expressed in dollars.
How to read the percentile
An MVRV of 1.5 doesn't say anything on its own. What's informative is where that value falls within its own history, and that's what the percentile is for: if it's 30, it means the indicator was higher on 70% of days since 2011.
It's the difference between "MVRV is at 1.5" and "MVRV is lower than it's been on 70% of Bitcoin's history." The second sentence is usable; the first isn't.
When MVRV stopped working
It's often presented as a cycle-top indicator, with thresholds like "above 3.5 is sell territory." We checked that claim against the peaks that actually happened, and it doesn't hold up in recent cycles.
| Cycle top | MVRV that day | Above 3.5? |
|---|---|---|
| June 2011 | 7.39 | Yes |
| December 2013 | 4.72 | Yes |
| December 2017 | 4.43 | Yes |
| April 2021 | 3.43 | No |
| November 2021 | 2.85 | No |
| October 2025 | 2.29 | No |
The cause is in the data: MVRV's range compresses every cycle. The annual maximum went from 7.74 in 2011 to 5.88 in 2013, 4.72 in 2017, 3.96 in 2021 and 2.52 in 2025. A threshold calibrated on old cycles no longer reaches the new tops.
It's not just this indicator. Five independent metrics — MVRV, NUPL, Z-Score, Puell Multiple and Power Law — show the same cycle-by-cycle compression, and in 2025 none reached its classic threshold. See all five in one table → (Spanish page)
That's why this site describes the current level instead of
announcing what comes next. The full methodology, with the code that
checks it, is published in the auditoria/ folder of the
repository.
Frequently asked questions
Does a low MVRV mean it's time to buy?
No. It means the price is low relative to the network's cost basis, and that has historically coincided with accumulation phases — but there were also long periods of low MVRV with the price falling further. In 2015 and 2018 the indicator stayed below 1 for months. It's a description of the state, not an entry signal.
How often is it updated?
Coin Metrics' series is daily. This page fetches the latest available value every time it loads.
Can the data be verified?
Yes, and that's the point. The metric is CapMVRVCur from
Coin Metrics' Community API, public and free. Anyone can request the
same series and compare.
Does it work for other assets?
Coin Metrics publishes MVRV for Bitcoin and Ethereum. For the rest of the dashboard's assets there's no series available in the free API.
Follow MVRV without watching the screen
The dashboard lets you set up an email or Telegram alert for when MVRV crosses a threshold you choose, with frequency control so it doesn't repeat the same alert on every run.
The other extreme: what the market says about the next 15 minutes
MVRV is a cycle metric: it moves over months and says nothing about tomorrow. At the opposite extreme are Polymarket's Up or Down markets, where every 15 minutes a real-money bet opens on whether BTC will close that interval above or below where it opened. They resolve against Chainlink's 60-second TWAP.
Loading 15-minute markets…
It's a reminder of scale: at 15 minutes the market is almost always near 50%, because at that horizon there's nothing to know. MVRV isn't competing with this — it answers a different question, about how much the network paid for its coins compared to what they're worth today.
Related metrics
MVRV is one of the dashboard's metrics. The ones that read best alongside it:
- NUPL — the same information expressed as the network's unrealized profit ratio. Derived from MVRV. See the dedicated page → (Spanish page)
- Realized price — the cost basis in dollars, which is MVRV's denominator seen another way. See the dedicated page → (Spanish page)
- MVRV Z-Score — normalizes the difference between both capitalizations by historical volatility. See the dedicated page → (Spanish page)
- Puell Multiple — looks at miner sell pressure instead of holders' cost basis. See the dedicated page → (Spanish page)