Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow today
Coin Metrics data, daily series.
Full historical series
Linear scale. The vertical jumps are the four halvings: issuance is
cut in half from one block to the next and the indicator doubles in
one step. Source: Coin Metrics, SplyCur.
What it actually measures
Stock-to-Flow compares how much exists (stock: circulating supply) against how much is created per year (flow: annualized issuance). An S2F of 120 means that, at the current issuance rate, it would take 120 years of production to double everything that already exists — the higher it is, the scarcer new issuance is relative to the accumulated stock.
Unlike the panel's other four metrics, Stock-to-Flow doesn't use the market price in its formula. Flow comes purely and exclusively from the protocol's known emission schedule — a theoretical 144 blocks per day, multiplied by the reward in effect on each date — so it's deterministic: it can be calculated for any past or future date without needing any market data.
A step, not a curve
Most of this panel's metrics move every day. Stock-to-Flow doesn't: it stays nearly flat for years and jumps abruptly each time a halving happens, because flow is cut in half from one block to the next while the stock barely changed:
| Halving | S2F the day before | S2F the day after |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2012 | 3.99 | 7.99 |
| Jul 9, 2016 | 11.98 | 23.97 |
| May 11, 2020 | 27.97 | 55.94 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | 59.93 | 119.86 |
All four jumps are almost exact doublings — the small deviation from ×2 is just the stock that kept growing that same day. The next one happens at block 1,050,000, estimated for 2028: the reward drops from 3.125 to 1.5625 BTC per block and S2F doubles again, without needing any assumption about the market to know it in advance.
Doubling scarcity didn't double the price
The four jumps above were the same relative size — every halving, without exception, doubled Stock-to-Flow. The price's response in the following months was completely different each time:
| Halving | Following cycle's top | Months later | Price change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2012 (US$ 12) | Dec 2013 (US$ 1,135) | 13 | +9,103% |
| Jul 2016 (US$ 652) | Dec 2017 (US$ 19,641) | 17 | +2,913% |
| May 2020 (US$ 8,592) | Nov 2021 (US$ 67,542) | 18 | +686% |
| Apr 2024 (US$ 64,908) | Oct 2025 (US$ 124,824) | 18 | +92% |
It's the same descending staircase already visible in MVRV, the Z-Score and the Puell Multiple, seen from the other side: supply gets scarcer at the same mechanical pace every time — that hasn't changed and won't — but each cycle needs more new capital to move a market that's already much bigger than the last one. Scarcity is constant by design; the demand needed to price it in, isn't.
It's not just this indicator. Five independent metrics — MVRV, NUPL, Z-Score, Puell Multiple and Power Law — show the same cycle-by-cycle compression, and in 2025 none reached its classic threshold. See all five in one table →
That's why this site describes the current level instead of
announcing what comes next. The full methodology, with the code that
checks it, is published in the auditoria/ folder of the
repository.
Frequently asked questions
Is Stock-to-Flow a reliable price model?
No, and this page is the evidence: the indicator doubled exactly the same way at all four halvings, but the subsequent revaluation went from +9,103% to just +92% from one cycle to the next. A purely supply-side figure can't anticipate how much new demand will show up.
How often is it updated?
Supply is recalculated daily, but the indicator only makes big jumps at halvings; between them it barely moves.
Can the data be verified?
Yes. Circulating supply comes from Coin Metrics, public and free, and the block reward for each date is a public fact of the protocol. No paid source is needed to reproduce it.
Does it work for other assets?
No. It depends on Bitcoin's halving schedule and its fixed 21-million-coin cap. Ethereum, for example, has had no comparable issuance ceiling since its move to proof-of-stake.
Follow Bitcoin without watching the screen
The dashboard lets you set up an email or Telegram alert for when MVRV crosses a threshold you choose, with frequency control so it doesn't repeat the same alert on every run. Stock-to-Flow, being deterministic, doesn't need an alert: its next jump is already known in advance.
Related metrics
Stock-to-Flow measures supply, not demand. The ones that best complete the picture:
- Puell Multiple — also depends on the emission schedule, but looks at miners' income in dollars instead of pure scarcity. See the dedicated page →
- MVRV — the demand side: how much the market actually paid for what already exists. See the dedicated page →
- MVRV Z-Score — the same MVRV comparison, normalized by historical volatility. See the dedicated page →
- NUPL — the network's unrealized profit, another way of looking at accumulated demand. See the dedicated page →